1. What I think about the Fanatics Superboost of Yamal 1+ goals

BE CAREFUL going nuclear on this super boost. Although Yamal is obviously the focal point of Spain’s attack, I don’t think he’s as much of a lock as Mbappé is for France.

In my opinion, Mikel Oyarzabal has been more effective as a scorer. He has started all five matches as Spain’s central striker and leads the team with 4 goals, 9 SOTs (yes, def. including his SOT in one of my parlays), and 2.75 xG. His movement inside the box, especially when getting supplied by Olmo and Pedri, has been one of Spain’s most consistent attacking patterns. For me, he’s the clear headliner on the Spain side.

If I had to include Yamal, I’d feel more comfortable with Spain to advance + Yamal 1+ SOT, or possibly Yamal 2+ total shots.

However, I also really like Oyarzabal 1+ SOT. Personally, I’m going to put more on Oyarzabal ATGS as a single than on Yamal ATGS.

I obviously want Spain to win because they’re already on my 'to advance' parlay, but I don’t expect a blowout. I’m predicting something around 2–0, give or take one total goal.

I also think BTTS is a little riskier in this matchup. If Spain can suffocate Belgium’s attack and control possession, they could absolutely blank them. Spain has yet to concede a goal in this tournament, so a Belgium goal is far from guaranteed.

Of course, what I want to happen and what could actually happen are obviously two different things. 😂

Belgium
Lukaku has cashed quite nicely for me up to this point, with three goals in the tournament. However, Belgium’s scoring has been spread around, with seven different players finding the net. They have scored in four of their five matches and have averaged four goals per game across their last three.

2. DraftKings’ First Goalscorer Insurance pick.

This is the promo I’ve hit in every match (either as the first goal scorer or insurance as ATGS) except the one that finished scoreless. I’m going with Oyarzabal. Honestly, I’m choosing him because I think he has a strong chance of scoring even if he doesn’t score first, which makes him a perfect fit for the insurance promotion.
If I were allowed two choices for Spain, though, my second one would obviously be Yamal.
For Belgium’s team first goalscorer, I’m actually leaning toward KDB or De Ketelaere rather than Lukaku

As anyone who has followed my picks knows, I always place extra weight on the designated penalty taker when choosing a first goalscorer, by the way

3. My slips

A. Main bet: Spain to advance + Oyarzabal 1+ SOT

The nightmare scenario isn't Spain losing, IMO.
It's Spain advancing ugly. Every Spain knockout win has been 1-0 or a late sub goal (Merino at 91' vs Portugal). Picture a 0-0 that goes to ET/pens: "Spain to advance" cashes, but most books settle player props on 90 minutes only so do 365 that includes extra time (also sub on play on). I personally do NOT bet on DK unless I have to (like first scorer insurance or player boost) b/c they don't honor 'sub on play on. If Oyarzabal gets subbed at 70' with zero SOT and the "safe" slip on DK dies while the headline leg wins.

If they come to play....
B. Secondary: Add Yamal 1+ SOT to A.
C. Secondary -variation: Spain to Advance + Yamal 1+ SOT (again, not highly recommended, if you already bet on fanatics super boost. I would rather double the unit on option A).
D. Moderate - Spain advance + Oyarzabal or Yamal to score (under either player to)
F. Sprinkle 1 - A + D : Spain to advance, Oyarzabal 1+ SOT and either player to score
E. Sprinkle 2 - All of above (Spain to advance + Oyarzabal 1+ SOT + Yamal 1+ SOT + Either player to score (if you want it to be safer, go down to either to score/assist).